PACIFIC DIVISION:
When you look at the offseason changes in the Pacific Division, two teams managed to make impact additions that should generate positive results, one added some lack luster pieces and is hoping that moves the needle for them, one team did absolutely nothing notable to upgrade their roster, and another managed to sour a negotiation with its best player so badly he left them for another team. The Clippers will be reeling this season with the loss of franchise cornerstone Paul George as they are hoping the additions of players like Derrick Jones Jr. and Nic Batum can help make up the difference. Perhaps the excitement of a new state of the art arena will help distract Clippers fans from the misery they are about to endure over the 82 game season as this team features much less talent than what they’ve had in recent years.
Then you have the Lakers who’s biggest offseason change was with their Head Coach as JJ Reddick is set to take over. There’s some intriguing storylines with this team as Bronny James and Lebron prepare to be the first father and son duo to suit up for an NBA game together along with their new head coach who has zero coaching experience whatsoever. Somehow the craziest thing with this organization is the blatant lack of any significant roster moves over the offseason. What’s that saying about insanity again? The Lakers will be running back largely the same roster this year expecting a different result than in years past.
The Sacramento Kings are a threat to contend for the Pacific Division crown as they made a splash this summer with the acquisition of Demar DeRozan giving them a big 3 alongside Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox. While DeRozan and his 24 points per game average from last season will surely be a welcome addition in Sacramento there is something to account for with the losses of NBA Champion Harrison Barnes (went to Spurs), defensive stalwart Davion Mitchell (went to Raptors), and Associate Head Coach Jordi Fernandez (now head coach for the Nets). It’s fair to assume the Kings will be around in the postseason but it’s difficult to imagine them hitting the ground running with all the turnover this summer and there may be a feel out period of getting acclimated to playing with DeRozan.
The team that did the most to improve in the Pacific Division this summer is the Phoenix Suns. A serious upgrade at Head Coach was in order after a disappointing regular season and first round exit to the Timberwolves in the playoffs. Suns owner Matt Ishbia delivered, moving on from the guaranteed contract he gave to Frank Vogel and replacing him with an even more qualified NBA Championship winning head coach in Arizona native Mike Budenholzer. For a team that had limited options to upgrade its roster due to having the highest payroll in the NBA, they managed to pull off a serious coup in the signing of Tyus Jones to a veteran minimum contract back at the end of July. It caught the entire league off guard, as Jones is a very talented guard that could have signed a much larger contract elsewhere. Devin Booker even went as far in the Suns Media Day as saying that when the news broke during Team USA’s ramp up for the Olympics, players in the locker room were asking how the Suns pulled it off. The missing piece for the Suns last season was a playmaker as Booker did his best to fill in as the starting point guard. That led to him getting a career high in assists per game last season but we all know that’s not the best way to maximize his abilities as he is one of the deadliest scorers in the league when utilized correctly. Now insert Tyus Jones who led the NBA in assists to turnover ratio and was top 10 in assists per game last season on a weak Washington squad. There will be serious benefits for Booker, Bradley Beal, and Kevin Durant to reap from this in year two of the most expensive big three pairing in the NBA. Keep in mind, Jones only signed a one year deal with the hope of improving his stock enough to fetch an even larger contract next summer instead of capitalizing on the play he’s shown over the last few seasons and taking the security of a larger contract now. It’s a gamble that could pay him dividends and it provides all the motivation he could ever need to be the best version of himself in a Suns uniform. Look for the Suns to play a stronger brand of basketball this season with less turnovers and more focus on playing to the strengths of Phoenix’s big three.
The Pick: Phoenix Suns to win the Pacific Division
NORTHWEST DIVISION:
This is another division that comes down to three teams as the Utah Jazz and Portland Trail Blazers realistically have their eyes on the 2025 NBA Draft and don’t have serious ambitions to contend this season. The Nuggets are priced as the third most likely team to win the Northwest and there may be some value with backing them but I would exercise a ton of caution. The Nuggets continued to shed players from their 2023 Championship team this offseason as Kentavious Caldwell Pope bolted for Orlando in free agency while Reggie Jackson left for the Sixers. Jamal Murray was signed to a four year extension but his inconsistent availability during the season due to injuries is a problem, not to mention he was very unimpressive on the court with Team Canada this summer in the Paris Olympics. While Nikola Jokic continued to make a case for being the best basketball player on the planet in the Olympics, he is going to need a healthy and consistent Jamal Murray this season to give the Nuggets a chance at winning the Division and ultimately to compete for another NBA title. That does not seem very likely given Murray has managed to play in only 172 games over the last 3 seasons.
Meanwhile the Timberwolves pulled off a massive trade turning Karl Anthony-Towns into a capable All Star Power Forward in Julius Randle and a very talented 3 and D player in Donte Divincenzo. This trade could be the difference maker in the Divisional race especially if Anthony Edwards continues to progress in his development as one of the marquee superstars in the NBA . There is still a ton of unknown with this Timberwolves team and it may take some time for Chris Finch and the coaching staff to figure out the best way to use the new influx of talent. While winning the division may be significant to the Wolves, the larger priority is making sure the team is performing at its best by the time the season ends in April.
It makes the most sense to back the proven concept of the Northwest Division, as the reigning champ Oklahoma City Thunder are still the young and hungry team that is eager to prove themselves. After a post season meltdown against the Mavericks got them knocked out of the playoffs, they went out and turned the inexperienced Josh Giddey into NBA Champion and notoriously aggressive defender Alex Caruso, along with signing the Knicks high energy big man Isaiah Hartenstein in free agency. Hartenstein and Caruso are excellent complementary pieces that will boost the Thunder as a whole while Shai Gilgeous Alexander takes another step in his growth this season after finishing in the top 3 of MVP voting last year. It’s not the sexiest pick and it doesn’t have the largest payout but it’s the right team to back in this division.
The Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder to win the Northwest Division
SOUTHWEST DIVISION:
This is the only division in the NBA where despite what the odds may say with the various sportsbooks out there, each team in this division has a chance to win it outright. Starting at the bottom, the San Antonio Spurs are the least favored team to win the Southwest, with FanDuel having their odds at 34/1. Victor Wembanyama is entering year two of his NBA career and the Spurs went out and got him a point guard that is known to exponentially elevate the play of any talented big man he has ever played with. That guard is Chris Paul, and although he is in the twilight of his career you cannot discount the impact he is sure to have on Wembanyama’s game this season. Paul will also be a mentor to number four overall pick Stephon Castle who may find himself being a big contributor and a starter for the Spurs by the end of the season if his development is consistent. The issue with the Spurs is that much of their roster is still very young which is why many expect this to be another developmental season for them. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that Paul elevates the play of Wemby so much that he carries them to a play in spot; that is certainly the Spurs goal but they would be satisfied with an improvement on the 22 wins they managed last season while scooping up a low 2025 draft pick to dangle as a trade chip next offseason.
Next there’s the Rockets at 6/1 odds and there’s definitely reason for optimism in Houston after a .500 season last year. Head Coach Ime Udoka made strides with the Rockets as the team was in contention for a play in spot all the way until the very end of the season. They will be looking to build on last year’s improvement with just about the same roster although they did add Reed Sheppard who appeared very NBA ready in the Summer League and should contend for Rookie of the Year this season. Perhaps Jabari Smith Jr. and Amen Thompson progress in their development to help the Rockets contend for the division. More than likely they will see some marginal improvement but nothing major and that’s mainly due to what the other teams in their division managed to do this offseason to better position themselves.
The Pelicans are the third favorite to win the division as they pulled off one of the bigger trades of the offseason bringing in a legitimate point guard in Dejounte Murray to pair with CJ McCollum to create a dynamic back court duo to complement Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson. The move did come at a cost however as the team currently does not have an imposing big man with the departures of Jonas Valanciunas, Cody Zeller, and Larry Nance Jr. While they’ll be able to get by for some time, it is a necessary role they will need to fill and they will be shopping throughout the season up until the trade deadline. How they fill this void will impact their ability to win the division.
The Mavericks are the betting favorite to win the division as they are the reigning champs and are coming off an NBA Finals appearance where they lost to the Celtics in five games. While they feature arguably the two most talented players in the division in Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, they lost some role players in the offseason with the departures of Tim Hardaway Jr., Derrick Jones Jr., and Josh Green. Bringing back Spencer Dinwiddie was a solid move while the free agent signing of Naji Marshall will help provide some of what they lost with Jones Jr. going to the Clippers. The million dollar question is what does Klay Thompson bring to the table with this Mavericks team. Does he stick in the starting lineup or does his offensive play continue to fade the way his defense has over the last few seasons which is what led to the Warriors not wanting to offer him the kind of money that he wanted which ultimately drove Thompson to join the Mavs. Dallas thinks a change of scenery is going to make all the difference but sadly I think they are not going to like what they signed up for with Klay. Even if Klay doesn’t perform, this team could still win the division on the back of a generational player like Luka who is the MVP favorite heading into the season. Luka will need to stay healthy throughout the year; without Luka this team’s chances of winning the division let alone competing for a championship seriously dwindle and betting on a healthy season from Luka doesn’t seem very secure (don’t forget about those bloody knees in the playoffs).
The Memphis Grizzlies are the team to bet on to win the Southwest Division. Last season was an anomaly for them, with Ja Morant serving his suspension for off the court drama which delayed his on court debut. Once the suspension was up, that led to a brief return to the court where the Grizzlies greatly benefitted from Ja’s presence; only for Ja to suffer a season ending shoulder injury in practice in January that ended the Grizzlies ambitions for success last year. They also never got to see Marcus Smart much as he only played 11 games in an injury-curtailed year and Desmond Bane spent time injured as well. This year the Grizzlies return a healthy core of Morant, Bane, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Marcus Smart. They drafted Rookie of the Year betting favorite Zach Edey out of Purdue and he looked very impressive in his limited Summer League appearances this summer. Morant spoke very highly of Edey at the Grizzlies media day as the two spent a ton of time over the summer working out together and establishing the chemistry they’ll need to have on the court to have a bounce back season for the Grizzlies. After the turmoil this organization has gone through in the last 12 months they will be eager to establish themselves as a formidable power in the NBA with Morant leading the charge. Look for the Grizzlies to win the Southwest Division this season in their quest to regaining relevancy in the league.
The Pick: Memphis Grizzlies to win the Southwest Division.
ATLANTIC DIVISION:
The Atlantic Division is shaping up to be among the more exciting division races for this upcoming NBA season as the two teams largely considered to be the second and third best in the division pulled off massive acquisitions this offseason to try and narrow the gap with the Celtics. The Sixers managed to sign Paul George away from the Clippers in free agency while the Knicks pulled off 2 blockbuster trades to acquire Mikal Bridges from the Nets as well as Karl Anthony-Towns from the Timberwolves. The Celtics will be without All Star Center Kristaps Porzingis for the first few months of the season at the very least after the big man underwent surgery this summer to address a leg injury which will put them behind the eight ball to start the season. Meanwhile the Sixers will surely have some growing pains while trying to figure out how to best utilize George with Tyrese Maxey, Joel Embiid, and the other 5 new role players they have added to their roster over the summer. While the Knicks will surely have some struggles their own trying to maximize the play of the new group they have, look for them to overcome those quickly as Mikal Bridges has familiarity playing with both Jalen Brunson and Josh Hart from their college days AND Towns has already played for head coach Tom Thibodeau. All 3 of these teams have their eyes on the largest prize of course but only one of them values coming out on top in the Atlantic Division more than the others and it’s not the Celtics or the Sixers.
The Pick: New York Knicks to win the Atlantic Division
CENTRAL DIVISION:
This is another one where three teams realistically will be vying for the Central Division crown and you can immediately count out the other two teams at the bottom (Pistons and Bulls aren’t surprising anyone this season). The Bucks are priced as the betting favorite with the Cleveland Cavaliers and Indiana Pacers right behind them as the second and third favorite teams. On paper this is absolutely Milwaukee’s division to lose as the pairing of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard should be even more potent in year two. Last season they managed to get enough wins to take the division despite numerous injuries and a head coaching change just before the All Star break. The only team that can truly stop Milwaukee this season is…well…Milwaukee. The biggest question in this divisional race is whether or not the Bucks will be able to keep their All NBA Duo healthy and on the court together as both Lillard and Giannis have shown to be pretty injury prone over the last few years. While both managed to play 73 games last season, it was their combined absences in the playoffs due to injuries that got them eliminated from the post season earlier than most expected. Lillard has played in 160 games total over the last 3 regular seasons while Giannis has played in 203 total games over that span. Assuming that the Bucks are not able to play another 73+ games with Lillard and Giannis on the court together this year, the door will swing wide open for the Cavs or the Pacers to step in and win the Central Division. The Cavs big off season move was a coaching change with Kenny Atkinson now at the helm, leading a team that will have a very similar makeup to last year’s squad that bounced the Magic from the first round in the playoffs before losing to the Celtics. Then you have the Pacers who over achieved in the playoffs going as far as the Eastern Conference Finals where they lost to the Celtics as well. With these teams all being separated by 2 games at the end of last season for the division crown, there’s a case to be made for either of them to win the Central Division but the highest value play is on the team that went the furthest in the playoffs last year and is in a position to take another step forward this year. The Pacers only acquired All Star forward Pascal Siakam right before the trade deadline last season and had to figure out how to make their offense work with him on the fly. Now they have a formal off season and training camp to prepare and with former lottery pick Benedict Mathurin coming back into the lineup after a season ending injury last season, look for the Pacers to build on the success they had and take another leap forward this season.
The Pick: Indiana Pacers to win the Central Division
SOUTHEAST DIVISION WINNER:
This is arguably the most straightforward and uninteresting divisional race in the NBA this season. The Orlando Magic won the division last year and are rightfully priced as the favorite again this season. The only other team with a remote chance to overtake them is the Miami Heat. Talent wise they can absolutely pull it off but the larger issue is that winning the division means absolutely nothing to the Heat. It’s just not a priority to them, as this is a team with a culture ingrained in gunning for championships; nothing more nothing less. Given that they made it all the way to the NBA Finals a couple years ago after getting into the playoffs by winning the play-in as the 10 seed, they’re a proven concept that all you need is a chance to get into the post season and you can still set yourself up to win it all. That being said, the Heat have drafted some promising young prospects while also managing to lose playoff contributors like Caleb Martin and Patty Mills. Their roster moves don’t feel like an immediate net positive for the team and that’s not even mentioning the passive aggressive battle being waged over Jimmy Butler’s contract extension that is sure to be a story line throughout the season. Meanwhile the Magic kept the best parts of their roster and managed to add a couple NBA Champion veteran guards to help guide their younger players in Cory Joseph and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. This will be the Magic’s division to lose this year as the Hawks, Hornets, and Wizards will all position themselves to be lottery bound teams with the highly touted 2025 Draft Class in mind.
The Pick: Orlando Magic to win the Southeast Division
TO WIN THE EASTERN CONFERENCE: Boston Celtics
TO WIN THE WESTERN CONFERENCE: Phoenix Suns
TO WIN THE NBA FINALS: Phoenix Suns
POINTS PER GAME LEADER 2024-2025 SEASON: Luka Doncic
ASSISTS PER GAME LEADER 2024-2025 SEASON: Tyus Jones
REBOUNDS PER GAME LEADER 2024-2025 SEASON: Victor Wembanyama
DIVISIONAL FUTURES PARLAY:
3 Legs +3485 Odds
- Suns to win the Pacific Division
- Knicks to win the Atlantic Division
- Grizzlies to win the Southwest Division
A $5 bet wins $174.27
LONG SHOT FUTURES PARLAY:
2 Legs +188150
- Tyus Jones Assists Per Game Leader for 2024-25 Season
- Victor Wembanyama Rebounds Per Game Leader for 2024-25 Season
A $5 wager wins $9,407.50