OLYMPICS MEN’S BASKETBALL 8/10/2024
GERMANY VS. SERBIA BRONZE MEDAL GAME 2:00AM
Serbia takes on Germany in the Bronze Medal game early Saturday morning after almost shocking the world on Thursday in a thrilling loss against Team USA. While most of us will be sleeping during this lower stakes final, we have been gifted another opportunity by oddsmakers as Germany comes into this game as a 1.5 point underdog which I believe to be a serious miscalculation. When you look at both of these teams based on talent and how they have played so far in the Olympics it’s understandable that someone might think Serbia has the upperhand in this matchup. They did just throttle the US after all, leading for most of the Semifinal game by double digits before they blew it in the 4th quarter. Why couldn’t Serbia just come into the bronze medal game and do the same thing to Germany? This is where properly contextualizing the game and where both teams currently stand will be key in knowing how to make your bets. The way this game is priced right now appears to be assuming that both teams are coming into the matchup equally motivated to win and therefore both teams will give their best effort. In my opinion this is an incorrect assumption and something we can look to exploit to profit off the sports books.
When you consider the motivations of both teams to win you will notice some stark differences in circumstance. Serbia has a history of medaling in the Olympics. They lost to the USA back in the 2016 Rio De Janeiro Olympics in the Gold Medal game and got Silver. After being paired with the US for pool play this year they devised a long term plan spanning multiple games in which they attempted to “hustle” the US to make them as vulnerable as possible for when they had to face them in an elimination game (a clever strategy that admittedly almost worked). Now that they lost to the US (in a particularly heartbreaking fashion), the plan failed and they won’t get another opportunity to face them again in Olympic play for 4 years. If you happened to notice on the TV broadcast yesterday the Serbian players were beside themselves walking off the court after that loss you could see the pain and defeat in their eyes as they shook hands with Team USA players. Their intentions in this tournament were to make history, avenge their 2016 loss in Rio, and bring home the gold and now that’s no longer reality. Meanwhile on the other side Germany has never medaled ever in Olympic basketball going all the way back to its inception in 1936. Germany had a stellar Olympics winning every single game they played by a margin of 13 or more before falling narrowly to the home team France in the semifinals. Although the Germans must have surely been disappointed by not advancing to the Gold medal game they still have something substantial to play for in a Bronze medal and being the first German Basketball team ever to medal in the Olympics.
Normally I try to base my betting advice on numbers, trends, something a little more concrete than speculation on what a team’s motivations are but in this case I think it’s worth it to bet going off the context I explained above. In the event I am wrong and Serbia does actually try just as hard as they did against the US, then this game is essentially a pick ’em as these two teams both bring strong NBA talent and offensive firepower to the court. At the end of the day after the Serbia game we just saw yesterday and the way they walked off the court so defeated, are you willing to bet on Nikola Jokic and Bogdan Bogdonovic to be performing at their best for a Bronze medal or Franz Wagner and Dennis Shroder? Seems like an easy answer to me.
The Pick: Germany Moneyline
UNITED STATES VS. FRANCE – GOLD MEDAL GAME – 12:30PM
The Olympic Basketball finale takes place Saturday afternoon as Team USA takes on the host nation France in the Gold Medal game. Both of these teams won grueling semifinal matchups to advance to the finals and will be prepared to fight for the Gold. The US comes into this matchup as a 16 point favorite after a furious 4th quarter rally against Serbia yesterday helped them overcome a 13 point deficit to avoid a catastrophe in the Semifinal round. Meanwhile France eliminated two undefeated countries and avenged their loss to Germany to get to the matchup that they’ve wanted from the start against the US. Taking France to cover the 16 point spread is tempting in this game. Although they have not faced a team of the US’s caliber at this point they will have the home court advantage in this matchup which does carry some benefits and their biggest loss so far in the Olympics was by 14. Personally I have concerns about France’s ability to shoot 3 point field goals at a high enough percentage to be competitive in this game and I’m worried this could lead to a USA blow out. Out of the 2 teams that we’ve seen push the USA to the limit so far (Serbia yesterday and South Sudan exhibition game) both had strong 3 point shooting performances which we know is an essential element of any game plan to defeat Team USA. At times in each of those games Serbia and South Sudan had a team 3pt field goal percentage of 50% or better and by the end of each game both teams shot about 38% from 3 against the USA. France has very capable 3pt shooters on their roster but so far in their elimination games they have not been able to convert that many as a team. Against Canada they shot 32% from 3pt and against Germany yesterday they shot 22% from 3pt as a team. Those percentages are not going to cut it against the USA. After the way he put his team on his back yesterday I see a ton of security in betting on LeBron James props for this game. This will be the closest thing to a game 7 that he’ll get to participate in since 2018 and it could be the last time he gets to play in a game with such high stakes. This is his chance to put the cherry on top of a legacy that will forever be compared to MJ as the GOAT. Look for James to own the moment. His line on assists at most books sits at 8.5 as he has had 8 or more assists in every Olympic game so far this summer besides the South Sudan pool play matchup. He had 10 assists yesterday against Serbia and should be good for at least another 8 against a French team that will look to double him on drives to the basket.
The Pick: LeBron James 8+ Assists
OTHER PROP BETS TO CONSIDER: (Bet 365 appears to have best pricing)
Franz Wagner 20+ Points
Franz Wagner 2+ Made 3’s
Dennis Schroder 15+ Points
Dennis Schroder 2+ Made 3’s
Isaia Cordinier OVER 10.5 Points
Guerschon Yabusele OVER 12.5 Points
Mathias Lessort OVER 7.5 Points
Victor Wembanyama OVER 1.5 Blocks
LeBron James 15+ Points
LeBron James 6+ Rebounds
LONG SHOT PARLAY (I used Bet365 to build this)
4 Legs +11383 Odds
Milwaukee Brewers -2.5 Run Line
Bobby Witt Jr. 2+ Hits
Germany -8.5 Spread
Isaia Cordinier 15+ Points
A $5 wager wins $569.18