Friday, October 4th

NEW YORK LIBERTY @ LAS VEGAS ACES – 6:30PM

The Liberty take on the Aces today in Las Vegas as they look to avenge their 2023 WNBA Finals loss by eliminating the Aces today from postseason contention. This has been the number one mission for the Liberty this year as they have yet to lose to the Aces through 5 games now since the 2023 WNBA Finals (3-0 during the regular season and 2-0 so far in the playoffs). With players like Sabrina Ionescu and Breanna Stewart performing at an elite level, combined with their ability to close games under pressure, the Liberty have shown they have the Aces’ number. Despite Las Vegas’s home-court advantage, no team in WNBA history has come back from a 2-0 deficit in a best-of-five series, further boosting New York’s chances of closing out the series. AI suggests a 65% chance that the Liberty finish the job tonight and win this game outright. Just about all sportsbooks have the Liberty priced as an underdog on the moneyline with Sporttrade pricing them at +135 odds which is about 42.5% implied probability. Take the Liberty to win as there is too much value here to ignore.

The Pick: New York Liberty Moneyline


SAN DIEGO PADRES @ LOS ANGELES DODGERS – 10/5 5:35PM

The Padres kick start one of the more exciting MLB Playoff matchups as they take on the Dodgers tomorrow night in Los Angeles in the NLDS. The Padres have been the hottest team in baseball since the All-Star break, leading the league in key offensive categories over the last month. They also hold an 8-5 edge over the Dodgers in their head-to-head matchups this season. The Dodgers are entering the series with a depleted pitching staff, missing key arms like Clayton Kershaw, Tyler Glasnow, Gavin Stone, and more which significantly weakens their starting pitching depth. While rookie Yoshinobu Yamamoto will be on the mound for the Dodgers tonight and Jack Flaherty will go for them tomorrow, the pitching talent drops off significantly for them after that and it will be difficult for the Dodgers to compete in a series that goes longer than 3 games. On the flip side, San Diego will have their ace, Dylan Cease, on the mound, and with underdogs performing exceptionally well in recent MLB playoffs, the Padres offer a strong value play to pull off the upset. This combination of favorable pitching and momentum makes the Padres the most compelling moneyline option in this matchup. AI is suggesting a 55% likelihood that the Padres win game 1 tomorrow while FanDuel has them priced at +118 odds which translates to just under 46% implied probability. Bet on the Padres to win this game. 

The Pick: San Diego Padres Moneyline


OTHER BETS TO CONSIDER:

Napheesa Collier 20+ Points (10/4)

Minnesota Lynx Alternate Spread +5.5 (10/4. Can find this on Draft Kings)

Arizona State Sun Devils Moneyline (College Football game on 10/5)

Clemson Tigers -13.5 Alternate Spread (College Football game on 10/5)

Georgia Bulldogs -23.5 Alternate Spread (College Football game on 10/5)

Nico Collins 80+ Alternate Receiving Yards (NFL game on 10/6)

Derrick Henry 80+ Alternate Rushing Yards (NFL game on 10/6)

Jacksonville Jaguars Moneyline (NFL game on 10/6)


FAVORITE PARLAYS:

2 Leg Parlay +259 Odds

  • Clemson Tigers -13.5 Alternate Spread (College Football game on 10/5)
  • Georgia Bulldogs -23.5 Alternate Spread (College Football game on 10/5)


2 Leg Parlay +299 Odds

  • Napheesa Collier 20+ Points (10/4)
  • New York Liberty Moneyline (10/4)


3 Legs +401 Odds

  • Nico Collins 80+ Alternate Receiving Yards (NFL game on 10/6)
  • Derrick Henry 80+ Alternate Rushing Yards (NFL game on 10/6)
  • Jacksonville Jaguars Moneyline (NFL game on 10/6)


LONG SHOT PARLAY:

3 Legs +2601 Odds

  • Napheesa Collier 25+ Points (10/4)
  • New York Liberty 1-10 WIn Margin (10/4)
  • Derrick Henry 100+ Alternate Rushing Yards (10/6)

A $5 bet wins $130.07