ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS @ MILWAUKEE BREWERS – 5:10PM
The Diamondbacks take on the Brewers again today after an impressive outing from Brandon Pfaadt yesterday that led to a 5-1 victory to open the 4 game series in Milwaukee. The Dbacks have now won 2 games in a row and are starting to build some more positive momentum towards securing one of the final wildcard spots. They enter this matchup priced by oddsmakers again as the favorite and much of that seems to do with the pitching matchup as the Dbacks will have their ace Zac Gallen on the mound while the Brewers have Colin Rea getting the start. Rea has been inconsistent with allowing runs all season and the Brewers find themselves in a similar dynamic with him that the Dbacks have with Jordan Montgomery. After initially starting for most of the season with mixed results, Rea allowed 10 earned runs to the Giants back on September 11th and the Brewers ended up moving Rea to the bullpen where he pitched a little over 2 innings in his last appearance on September 16th. Whether or not Rea gets moved back into the starting pitching rotation for the post season will largely depend on the health of the rest of their starting pitchers and how he performs in the few opportunities he’ll have to prove himself as the season winds down. That being said, while AI does suggest a probable likelihood for the Diamondbacks to win this game, it likes Corbin Carroll to get a run even more. With the price currently set at -130 on FanDuel, that equates to implied probability of about 56.5% while AI estimates the actual probability of this occurring to be closer to 70%. This suggests Corbin Carroll to score a run to be another high value wager to make today.
The Pick: Corbin Carroll to score a run
DETROIT LIONS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS – 9/22 1:25PM
The Lions take on the Cardinals this Sunday in an afternoon showdown at State Farm Stadium. Both teams come into the matchup with 1-1 records and will be looking to have a winning record by the end of week 3. As much as I love backing the Cardinals as underdogs in a home game, AI has identified a higher value play to make on James Conner’s combined total rushing and receiving yards market as his line is sitting pretty low right now on FanDuel at 74.5. Conner has been a workhorse for the Cardinals, averaging 103.5 total yards per game this season, well above the 74.5-yard line set for this matchup. Detroit’s defense, while solid against the run, has shown vulnerabilities in containing running backs who can contribute in the passing game. With Arizona’s offense relying heavily on Conner to carry the load, particularly with his dual-threat ability, the over presents strong value, especially given that the implied probability of him surpassing 74.5 yards (53.27%) falls short of the true probability, which AI estimates to be around 60%. This makes it a high-value wager, one that’s hard to pass up in Week 3.
The Pick: James Conner Rushing + Receiving Yards OVER 74.5
OTHER BETS TO CONSIDER:
Rachaad White Alternate Total Rushing+Receiving Yards 60+
Javonte Williams Alternate Total Rushing+Receiving Yards 50+
Jonathan Taylor Alternate Total Rushing+Receiving Yards 80+
James Cook Alternate Total Rushing+Receiving Yards 70+
Tony Pollard Rushing + Receiving Yards OVER 83.5
Bijan Robinson Rushing + Receiving Yards OVER 108.5
Daniel Jones to throw an interception
Andy Dalton to throw an interception
FAVORITE PARLAYS:
2 Legs +232 Odds
- James Conner Rushing + Receiving Yards OVER 74.5
- Corbin Carroll to score a run
3 Legs +375 Odds
- James Conner Rushing + Receiving Yards OVER 74.5
- Jonathan Taylor Alternate Total Rushing+Receiving Yards 80+
- Rachaad White Alternate Total Rushing+Receiving Yards 60+
3 Legs +491 Odds
- Corbin Carroll to score a run
- James Conner Rushing + Receiving Yards OVER 74.5
- Daniel Jones to throw an interception
LONG SHOT PARLAY:
3 Legs +2252 Odds
- Cleveland Browns Alternate Spread -13.5
- Las Vegas Raiders Alternate Spread -13.5
- Arizona Diamondbacks Run Line -1.5
A $5 wager wins $112.65