ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS @ MIAMI MARLINS – 3:40PM
The Diamondbacks take on the Marlins today in Miami after losing 3 straight games to the Tampa Bay Rays over the weekend. It was the first time that the Dbacks were swept since an April matchup against the Braves and they will be looking to get back on course tonight with a win against the Marlins. At the time that I am writing this it appears most likely that Brandon Pfaadt will be the starting pitcher for the Diamondbacks which they sorely need. Pfaadt has been the constant of the Dbacks pitching rotation this season with Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen still trying to find their form while coming back from various injuries. The Diamondbacks are 8-1 in the last 9 games Pfaadt has started going back to June 25th. The Marlins meanwhile have the worst record in the National League at 46-78 and over their last 10 games they are 4-6. They will be starting Adam Oller today who has not pitched at all yet this year after being called up from the minors. He was used as a relief pitcher in 2023 and has 14 starts under his belt from 2022 when he used to play for the A’s and his ERA as a starter back then was above 6. He will be in a difficult spot today having to face one of the best hitting corps in the majors coming from Triple-A Jacksonville. Betting on the over for the total number of runs scored in this game is good to look at as both teams seem poised to put up lots of runs based on what the projected pitching matchup is today and the line sitting at only 8.5 (The total amount of runs scored in each of Pfaadt’s last 4 starts was 9 or more). To be conservative, look for the Diamondbacks to end the losing streak today with the pitching matchup in their favor and get back on track with a win.
The Pick: Diamondbacks Moneyline
BOSTON RED SOX @ HOUSTON ASTROS – 5:10PM
The Red Sox are in Houston tonight to take on the Astros in the final 3 game series these teams will play against each other this season. This game features a pitching matchup that should create an opportunity for bettors to profit on the total amount of runs scored tonight. The Red Sox will start Tanner Houck while the Astros will feature Yusei Kikuchi on the mound and both have trends we can look at that seem to indicate there will be lots of runs scored in this game. Looking at Houck’s last 5 starts, the total runs scored in each game between both teams is 10 or more. Included in those last 5 starts is Houck’s last game against the Astros on August 9th and the Astros ended up winning 8-4. Houck has done considerably better in his last 2 starts (only 3 total earned runs) compared to the 3 starts before those (13 earned runs total) so it may be a pitcher from the Red Sox bullpen giving up the most runs to the Astros. The pitcher who is the biggest liability to give up runs in this game is undoubtedly Yusei Kikuchi. Kikuchi who joined the Astros not too long ago after being traded by the Blue Jays, is a pitcher the Red Sox are very familiar with given that he used to be a divisional foe and Kikuchi has a trend spanning back to last season of getting abused by Red Sox hitters since he became a starting pitcher. He faced the Red Sox back in June this year while still on the Blue Jays and gave up 5 earned runs and was pulled after 4 innings (The Red Sox won 7-3). In 2 starts against the Red Sox last year he did the exact same thing giving up 5 earned runs in about 4 innings each time before getting pulled (The Red Sox won both games 7-6). You have to go back to 2022 when Kikuchi was a relief pitcher to find a more optimistic statline against the Red Sox. Look at betting the over on the total number of runs scored in this game as the Red Sox will surely light up Kikuchi again today. The line is currently sitting at 8, you can take the over at that number or play an alternate total runs bet to take the over on a lower or higher line. I would feel comfortable pushing this line all the way up to 9.5 based on the trends we’re seeing from both teams.
The Pick: Red Sox vs. Astros OVER 8 Total Runs.
OTHER BETS TO CONSIDER:
Red Sox vs. Astros First 5 Innings Total Runs OVER 4.5
Tyler O’Neil 1+ RBI’s
Tyler O’Neil 1+ Hits
Rafael Devers 1+ RBI’s
Rafael Devers 1+ Hits
Giants Moneyline
White Sox vs. Giants 1st Inning UNDER 0.5 Runs (NRFI)
Royals Moneyline
Bobby Witt Jr. 1+ RBI’s
Corbin Carroll 1+ Runs
LONG SHOT PARLAY:
4 Legs +4387 Odds
Red Sox vs. Astros OVER 9.5 Total Runs (Alternate total runs)
Rafael Devers 2+ RBI’s
Arizona Diamondbacks -2.5 Alternate Run Line
Kansas City Royals -2.5 Alternate Run Line
A $5 wager pays $219.38