MIAMI MARLINS @ COLORADO ROCKIES – 5:40PM
Two of the worst teams in the National League are set to face off against each other tonight as the Marlins are in Colorado to take on the Rockies in a 4 game series. Both of these teams are firmly out of the playoff picture and don’t have much to play for besides pride and a paycheck. With the low stakes nature of this matchup, a lackluster pitching matchup, and the game taking place at Coors Field, this is going to be a great game to bet on the total number of runs scored as the total run line is currently sitting at 10.5 runs on FanDuel. At the time that I am writing this, Edward Cabrera is set to start for the Marlins while the Rockies pitcher is undecided and they could very well elect to make this a bullpen game which would only bode well for taking the over on the total runs scored. Edward Cabrera has an Away ERA this season of 8.14 while the Rockies bullpen is the worst in the majors with a 5.64 ERA. We all know how hitter friendly of a ball park Coors Field is and it’s reflected in the final scores of the games played there. Looking at the last 10 games played at Coors Field going back to July 24th, there have been 10 or more runs scored in 7 of those games and the away teams over that stretch had much better pitchers than what Miami brings to the table in this series. There have been 9 or more total runs scored in each of Miami’s last 4 games and there have been 11 or more total runs scored in 3 out of Colorado’s last 4 games so it’s a trend that’s been playing out very recently for both teams as well. To be conservative, I would recommend taking the over on an adjusted total run line to lessen your risk on the bet. You can take the over at a lowered line of 8.5 runs scored to be very safe but you should be fine taking the over at 9.5 runs as well.
The Pick: Marlins vs. Rockies Adjusted Total Run Line OVER 9.5 Runs.
NEW YORK LIBERTY @ PHOENIX MERCURY – 7:00PM
The Liberty are in Phoenix to take on the Mercury in what will be the final regular season matchup for both teams. They have played two close games so far this season with each team getting a win on their own home court. The Liberty will be looking to get back on track after losing at home to the Connecticut Sun last Saturday while the Mercury won a tight game in Atlanta against the Dream last Friday and are only a few games behind the Aces in the playoff standings. The Liberty enter the game tonight as a 6 point favorite with the Mercury priced as a +205 underdog currently on FanDuel. With how back and forth this matchup has been this season and with the Mercury being at home it’s tempting to bet them on the moneyline or even to cover the spread but keep in mind that Phoenix is still a bit short handed with the injuries they are dealing with. Starter Rebecca Allen will be out again and she contributed 17 points in the Mercury’s 99-93 home victory against the Liberty back on June 18th. That’s a lot of points to replace against the best team in the WNBA. The Mercury bench of Monique Billings, Natasha Mack, and Celeste Taylor scored 16 points combined in their last game against the Dream to put it into perspective. Player props are going to be the way to go in this matchup and one of the best lines available today is for Diana Taurasi’s points in this game. Taurasi averages 15.8 points per game this season through 26 games played. In 11 home games this year this number jumps up almost 5 points to 20.2 points per game off of just over 14 field goal attempts per contest. In 2 games this year against the Liberty she is averaging 16.5 points with a 14 point outing in New York back in May and a 19 point game in Phoenix back in June. Her line on points tonight is sitting at 14.5 (below her regular season average) and she has gone over that line in 3 out of her last 4 games. With the game tonight being at home and Phoenix missing a starting player look for Taurasi to pick up the slack on the offense for the Mercury and score points tonight against New York.
The Pick: Diana Taurasi OVER 14.5 Points
OTHER BETS TO CONSIDER:
Tigers Moneyline
Astros Moneyline
Yankees Moneyline
Red Sox Moneyline (2nd game)
Cubs vs. Pirates 1st Inning UNDER 0.5 Runs Scored (NRFI)
Caitlin Clark 8+ Assists
Caitlin Clark 20+ Points
Jonquel Jones 8+ Rebounds
Jonquel Jones 15+ Points
Tina Charles 10+ Rebounds
LONG SHOT PARLAY:
3 Leg Parlay +2441 Odds
- Tina Charles 12+ Rebounds
- Diana Taurasi 20+ Points
- Marlins vs. Rockies Alternate Total Run Line OVER 10.5
A $5 wager would win $122.07