WASHINGTON COMMANDERS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS – 5:15PM
The Commanders travel to Cincinnati to take on the Bengals in a Monday Night Football clash that will be on ABC tonight. The Commanders bring a surprising 1-1 record into this game while Cincinnati is in a must-win situation after an 0-2 start. Despite some Joe Burrow injury concerns that have loomed over this matchup, he’s been practicing fully and is expected to play. Burrow’s ability to extend plays and distribute the ball should thrive against a Washington defense that has struggled in coverage, particularly with key injuries in their secondary. While the Commanders have leaned on their run game, Cincinnati’s defense has been more effective against the pass, and Jayden Daniels’ inexperience is likely to be exposed on the road. With a motivated Bengals team playing at home and a defense that can pressure Daniels, taking an alternate spread on the Bengals to win by at least a touchdown (-6.5 spread) is a favorable position. AI’s likelihood of the Bengals to cover that spread just barely exceeds the roughly 57% implied probability of the -136 odds for that market which suggests it’s a favorable bet to make.
The Pick: Cincinnati Bengals Alternate Spread -6.5
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS @ ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS – 6:40PM
The Giants are in Phoenix to take on the Dbacks tonight in the conclusion of their regular season series. The Diamondbacks have won 6 out of the 10 games played between these teams so far this season as they are looking to secure a spot in the postseason. Arizona had a 4 game winning streak going until they blew an 8-0 lead yesterday to lose 10-9 to the Brewers in the bottom of the 9th. Regardless, the Dbacks hitters appear to have regained their top form over this stretch with Ketel Marte hitting one or more home runs in each of their last 3 games and Lourdes Gurriel making his return from the IL with a home run against the Brewers as well. The Giants, meanwhile, have won 5 of their last 6 games including a 3 game sweep of the Royals in Kansas City but they are sending Hayden Birdsong to the mound who has struggled badly in road outings with an ERA above 7 this season. Birdsong recently faced the Diamondbacks on September 4th at home and got pulled after just 3 innings in a 6-4 loss. Expect a similar struggle from Birdsong today as he will try and contain the Dbacks hitters in their hitter friendly ballpark. With the Diamondbacks’ offense firing and Birdsong’s road struggles, Arizona is the clear value play for tonight’s game. AI suggests a 66% likelihood that the Dbacks will win the game while the -178 odds equate to implied probability of 64% so there is value to take advantage of with this bet.
The Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks Moneyline
OTHER BETS TO CONSIDER:
Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline
Arizona Diamondbacks 1st 5 Innings Run Line -0.5
Ketel Marte OVER 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI’s
Eduardo Rodriguez OVER 5.5 Strikeouts
Joe Burrow OVER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Bengals vs. Commanders UNDER 46.5 Total Score
Bills vs. Jaguars UNDER 46.5 Total Score
Gabe Davis OVER 39.5 Receiving Yards
FAVORITE PARLAYS:
2 Legs +171 Odds
- Arizona Diamondbacks Moneyline
- Cincinnati Bengals Alternate Spread -6.5
3 Legs + 409 Odds
- Arizona Diamondbacks 1st 5 Innings Run Line -0.5
- Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline
- Bills vs. Jaguars UNDER 46.5 Total Score
3 Legs +484 Odds
- Gabe Davis OVER 39.5 Receiving Yards
- Bills vs. Jaguars UNDER 46.5 Total Score
- Joe Burrow OVER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
LONG SHOT PARLAY:
3 Legs +2290 Odds
- Eugenio Suarez to hit a Home Run
- Ja’Marr Chase to score an anytime Touchdown
- James Cook 90+ Alternate Rushing+Receiving Yards
A $5 wager wins $114.51