CINCINNATI REDS @ PITTSBURGH PIRATES – 3:40PM
The Reds are in Pittsburgh today to kick off a new 4 game series against their divisional rivals. These teams have played each other 6 times already this season with the Pirates leading the series so far 4-2. The Pirates will have Paul Skenes on the mound today while the Reds will be going with Nick Lodolo. Betting on either pitcher to go over on strikeouts tonight is tempting with both of these teams ranked in the top six in the majors for striking out the most. You’re better off making a play on how long these pitchers will last tonight given that both Skenes and Lodolo have been a bit inconsistent with the amount of strikeouts they’ve been getting over their last 5 games. Looking at where the lines stand on total outs recorded for each pitcher today on FanDuel, Skenes is currently at 18.5 and Lodolo is at 16.5. Skenes has exceeded that line only 1 time in his last 5 starts when he pitched just over 8 innings against the Cardinals back on July 23rd. In one previous start against the Reds back in June Skenes threw for 6 innings (only 18 outs) in a home win. Lodolo meanwhile has reached 17 or more outs in 3 out of his last 5 starts. In his last start against the Pirates he threw for 7 innings in a 2-1 win. Lodolo did end up getting shelled by the Royals hitters in his last start on August 17th and he was pulled early in the 3rd inning after giving up 8 runs. I actually see that as a positive in this case because Lodolo should be a bit more rested coming into the matchup today having only thrown 59 pitches in his last game against the Royals (don’t let this intimidate you; Kansas is one of the top hitting teams in baseball and the game was in Cincinnati which is the most hitter friendly stadium in the majors). With Pittsburgh ranking among the bottom in the MLB among most team hitting metrics AND with the game being played in Pittsburgh instead of Cincinnati, Lodolo should have the edge over Skenes on exceeding his line for total outs tonight.
The Pick: Nick Lodolo OVER 16.5 Outs Recorded
HOUSTON ASTROS @ BALTIMORE ORIOLES – 4:08PM
The Astros travel to Baltimore to take on the Orioles today in their final regular season series. These teams have played each other a few times already this year with the Astros winning the series so far 3-0. The Astros will be starting righty Spencer Arrighetti today while the Orioles will be going with their ace Corbin Burnes. The pitching matchup seems to create a great opportunity to bet the over on the total amount of runs scored. Corbin Burnes has had a very solid year for the Orioles but he has shown an increasing tendency in his recent games to allow more runs than normal. Over his last 5 starts he has allowed 20 earned runs to opposing teams. In his last two home games he has given up 10 earned runs alone. Even the last time he faced the Astros back on June 22nd he allowed 4 earned runs in a 5-1 loss. In addition to this the Orioles bullpen ranks among the worst in ERA in the majors making them a liability to give up runs in this matchup. Keep in mind the Astros have managed to score 14, 5, and 8 runs in the three games these teams have played so far already. Meanwhile Spencer Arrighetti has not faced the Orioles yet this year but he has a 6.09 ERA in away games this season with a 2-6 record on the road. He’s also coming off a home outing where he allowed 4 earned runs and 2 home runs to the Chicago White Sox in a 5-4 loss.The combination of Burnes’s recent trend of allowing runs, the Orioles horrible bullpen, and Arrighetti’s history of giving up more runs in road games this year is what we’ll be counting on to hit the over total runs in this game. The line is currently at 8 total runs on FanDuel and they’ve managed to score 9 or more runs in two out of the three games they’ve played so far this year. Look for the over on total runs scored to hit again today in this matchup.
The Pick: OVER 8 total runs scored
OTHER BETS TO CONSIDER:
Astros Moneyline
Padres Moneyline
Padres Vs. Mets UNDER 0.5 runs in the first inning (NRFI)
Luis Severino OVER 3.5 Strikeouts
Spencer Schwellenbach OVER 5.5 Strikeouts
Alex Bregman 1+ Runs Scored
George Springer 1+ Runs Scored
Spencer Horwitz 1+ Runs Scored
Satou Sabally 20+ Points
Jonquel Jones 10+ Rebounds
LONG SHOT PARLAY:
3 Legs +3272 Odds
Luis Severino 5+ Strikeouts
Jonquel Jones 20+ Points
Houston Astros -1.5 Alternate Run Line
A $5 wager pays $163.64