TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ ATLANTA FALCONS – 5:15PM
The Buccaneers take on the Falcons to kick off week 5 in the NFL with a clash of NFC South division rivals. The Falcons bring a 2-2 record into this matchup after beating the Saints last week on a last second field goal while the Bucs are sitting on top of the conference with a 3-1 record after they dominated the Eagles last week at home. Both of the defenses for these teams rank in the bottom half of the NFL for yards allowed per game which could lead to a high scoring affair. Atlanta’s glaring weakness is its rushing defense, one of the worst in the league, which gives the Buccaneers a prime opportunity to control the game on the ground. Combine that with Tampa Bay’s solid defensive unit and Atlanta’s reliance on the run game, and you have a formula for a tightly contested matchup. The +3.5 spread offers enough cushion to confidently back the Bucs to keep this game close or win outright. AI is suggesting a 63% likelihood that the Bucs cover an alternate spread of +3.5 while Fanduel has this priced at -148 odds which equates to just under 60% implied probability (if you mention this to Sporttrade I am confident they will match or beat this price). With Baker Mayfield poised to have another big performance against a Falcons passing defense that does not rank among the best in the league, take the Bucs to cover the alternate spread as there is value to take advantage of based on the pricing of the odds.
The Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5 Alternate Spread
SAM HOUSTON STATE BEARKATS @ UTEP MINERS – 6:00PM
The Bearkats take on the Miners tonight in a prime time Conference USA matchup that will be televised on CBS Sports. Sam Houston is sitting in second place in the conference with a 4-1 overall record and a 1-0 record in the conference while UTEP has not managed to win a game yet so far. The Bearkats have shown dominance in their rushing attack, averaging over 200 yards per game, which matches up well against UTEP’s struggling run defense. UTEP has been unable to stop the run all season, which plays directly into Sam Houston’s offensive strengths. Meanwhile, UTEP’s offense has been inconsistent, making it difficult for them to keep up on the scoreboard. With Sam Houston controlling both the pace and physicality of the game, they are in a great position to win comfortably and cover the 10.5 point spread. AI recommends a 65% chance that the Bearkats win by 11 or more points while the -104 odds on Sporttrade equate to just under 51% implied probability. This is the highest value bet of the day don’t miss out on backing Sam Houston to cover the spread.
The Pick: Sam Houston State -10.5 Spread
OTHER BETS TO CONSIDER:
Jose Quintana 5+ Strikeouts
Jackson Chourio To Record a Hit
New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers OVER 7.5 Alternate Total Runs
Texas State -7.5 First Half Spread
Baker Mayfield 250+ Alternate Passing Yards
Chris Godwin 6+ Alternate Receptions
Kirk Cousins 225+ Alternate Passing Yards
Rachaad White 25+ Alternate Rushing Yards
FAVORITE PARLAYS:
2 Legs +108 Odds
- Jackson Chourio To Record a Hit
- Rachaad White 25+ Alternate Rushing Yards
2 Legs +281 Odds
- Sam Houston State -10.5 Spread
- Texas State -7.5 First Half Spread
4 Legs +437 Odds (Can be used for Same Game Parlay promos)
- Baker Mayfield 250+ Alternate Passing Yards
- Chris Godwin 6+ Alternate Receptions
- Rachaad White 25+ Alternate Rushing Yards
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5 Alternate Spread
LONG SHOT PARLAY:
3 Legs +2119 Odds
- Baker Mayfield 275+ Alternate Passing Yards
- Jackson Chourio 2+ Hits
- Sam Houston State -13.5 Alternate Spread
A $5 bet wins $105.96