ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS @ MILWAUKEE BREWERS – 4:15PM
The Diamondbacks travel to Milwaukee to take on the Brewers in a rematch after losing their series to them last week in a 3 game homestand at Chase Field. The Brewers just happened to clinch the NL Central Division last night and spent their night partying in the locker room like they won the World Series after defeating the Phillies on a walk off hit in the bottom of the 9th. With not much left to play for at this point in the season don’t expect the Brewers to bring their best into this matchup today. The Diamondbacks on the other hand now find themselves in a dog fight with the Mets and Braves for the final wildcard spot after losing 4 out of their last 6 games. Expect the Diamondbacks to play with grit and a massive sense of urgency in this game. Given the recent struggles of the Dbacks, AI identified a higher value bet to place then simply backing them to win (they are the betting favorite on the moneyline). Corbin Carroll is coming off a 2 home run game yesterday and he is still on a scoring run with 6 runs scored over his last 4 games. He is still among the league leaders in total runs scored on the year ranking #4 with 115 runs (Bobby Witt Jr., Shohei Ohtani, and Juan Soto are the only players with more runs than Carroll so far this season). Over the last 30 days he is third in the league with 24 runs scored, over the last 15 days he is fourth with 10 runs scored, and over the last 7 days he is tied for first with 7 runs scored. AI is suggesting a near 80% likelihood that Corbin Carroll scores a run in this game while the odds on FanDuel are -155 which equates to implied probability of just over 60%. Taking Carroll to score a run today is a high value wager.
The Pick: Corbin Carroll to score a run.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS @ NEW YORK JETS – 5:15PM
The Patriots take on the Jets for Thursday Night Football tonight in what will be the first home game for the New York Jets this season. While the Jets are favored to win by 6.5 to 7 points depending on the sportsbook, this past week in the NFL has shown us that underdogs, especially in division games, frequently outperform expectations. The Patriots, despite some early struggles, have a proven ability to keep games close thanks to a solid run game and a disciplined defense. Given the Jets’ inconsistency on offense and the volatility of NFL point differentials, the 6.5-point spread is simply too wide for a matchup that will likely be determined by a field goal or less. AI is suggesting an 84% likelihood of the Patriots covering the +6.5 spread while the -115 odds suggest implied probability of only 53.49% so there is a ton of value to seize on with backing the Patriots on the spread.
The Pick: New England Patriots +6.5
OTHER BETS TO CONSIDER:
Diamondbacks vs. Brewers Alternate Total Runs OVER 7.5
Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury Total Score OVER 163.5
Indiana Fever vs. Washington Mystics Total Score OVER 168
Breece Hall Alternate Rushing + Receiving Yards 90+
Aaron Rodgers Passing Yards UNDER 215.5
Rhamondre Stevenson Any Time Touchdown
Joey Slye Total Kicking Points OVER 6.5
Hunter Henry Alternate Receiving Yards 25+
FAVORITE PARLAYS:
2 Legs +229 Odds
- Corbin Carroll to score a run
- Joey Slye Total Kicking Points OVER 6.5
3 Legs +331 Odds
- Hunter Henry Alternate Receiving Yards 25+
- Aaron Rodgers Passing Yards UNDER 215.5
- Breece Hall Alternate Rushing + Receiving Yards 90+
3 Legs +458 Odds
- Rhamondre Stevenson Any Time Touchdown
- Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury Total Score OVER 163.5
- New England Patriots +6.5
LONG SHOT PARLAY:
3 Legs +2850 Odds
- New England Patriots Moneyline
- Rhamondre Stevenson 2+ Any Time Touchdowns
- Diamondbacks vs. Brewers Alternate Total Runs OVER 9.5
A $5 wager would win $142.54