ATLANTA DREAM @ NEW YORK LIBERTY – 4:30PM
The Liberty take on the Dream in New York today in what will be an elimination game for Atlanta, after New York beat them in Game 1 of their playoff series by 14 points this past Sunday. The Liberty have dominated the Dream, winning four out of five total matchups including the regular season, with three of those victories being by 14 or more points. With Breanna Stewart and Sabrina Ionescu leading the charge and the Dream missing key players like Aerial Powers and Cheyenne Parker-Tyus, there is a massive gap in the amount of talent that each team is able to put on the court and it gives the Liberty a clear edge in this game. With the spread currently at 12.5 points favoring the Liberty, you can look to take them at that line for a slightly larger payout. To be conservative I recommend betting on the Liberty to win by a margin of 11 or more points. AI is suggesting a 75% chance that the Liberty cover that margin and with the odds currently at -165 on FanDuel, that equals an implied probability percentage of only 62%. The over 10% difference shows the book is undervaluing this market and we can look to exploit that today.
The Pick: New York Liberty to win by 11+ (Win Margin)
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS @ ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS – 6:40PM
The Giants take on the Diamondbacks in the second game of their 3 game series at Chase Field. After a tough loss last night, the D-backs are desperate for a win, as they’ve now fallen to the final Wild Card spot in the National League. With the stakes high, Arizona will come out with a sense of urgency. D-backs starting pitcher Brandon Pfaadt is in solid form, coming off a 12-strikeout performance in his last start and he should be in a position to continue to rack up more strikeouts today. Over the last 7 days the Giants rank 2nd in all of Major League Baseball for the most strikeouts as a team with 62. Over the last 15 days they rank fourth as a team for most strikeouts and over the last 30 days they rank third. While Giants’ ace Logan Webb is reliable, he’s had difficulties on the road this season with an away ERA of 4.66. The Giants have also lost 3 3 out of the last 4 games that Webb has started for them. The Diamondbacks have been strong at Chase Field, and in a must-win situation and you can count on them to get the job done and secure the victory tonight. AI suggests a 65% likelihood that the Diamondbacks win the game while their current moneyline odds on FanDuel (-152) equate to an implied probability percentage of about 60% so there is value to utilize by betting on the D-backs to win.
The Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks Moneyline
OTHER BETS TO CONSIDER:
Nathan Eovaldi 6+ Strikeouts
Framber Valdez 6+ Strikeouts
Brandon Pfaadt 6+ Strikeouts
Corbin Carroll to score a run
Los Angeles Angels Moneyline
Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces Alternate Total Points UNDER 163.5 (Draft Kings)
Atlanta Dream vs. New York Liberty Alternate Total Points UNDER 160.5 (Draft Kings)
Breanna Stewart 10+ Rebounds
FAVORITE PARLAYS:
2 Legs +144 Odds
- Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces Alternate Total Points UNDER 163.5 (Draft Kings)
- Atlanta Dream vs. New York Liberty Alternate Total Points UNDER 160.5 (Draft Kings)
3 Legs +290 Odds
- New York Liberty 11+ Win Margin
- Arizona Diamondbacks Moneyline
- Corbin Carroll to score a run
3 Legs +375 Odds
- Nathan Eovaldi 6+ Strikeouts
- Framber Valdez 6+ Strikeouts
- Breanna Stewart 10+ Rebounds
LONG SHOT PARLAY:
3 Legs +2771 Odds
- Breanna Stewart 25+ Points
- Framber Valdez 8+ Strikeouts
- Brandon Pfaadt 8+ Strikeouts
A $5 wager wins $138.55