OLYMPICS MEN’S BASKETBALL SEMI FINALS 8/8/2024
FRANCE VS. GERMANY – 8:30AM
Team France takes on Germany in a rematch Thursday morning with a spot in the Gold Medal game on the line. These teams played just 5 days ago with Germany routing France by 14 points in a dominating performance. After taking such a tough loss at home, odds makers had a bit of an overreaction in my opinion with Team France and their standing among the remaining teams in the quarterfinal round. This helps explain why France came into their last matchup against Canada as such a heavy underdog and why they continue to be an underdog in this matchup. Germany is a formidable team don’t get me wrong. Franz Wagner has been arguably the best player in the Olympics so far and Dennis Schroder is not far behind him. Franz leads all Olympic players remaining in the tournament in points per game and Schroder is 4th behind Nikola Jokic and Bogdan Bogdanovic. France has their work cut out for them make no mistake but the early loss to Germany in pool play seems to have helped them reset and make some adjustments to their game plan.The change in strategy paid off greatly against an undefeated Canadian team that was expected to challenge the US for Gold but couldn’t manage to lead at all against France. With Rudy Gobert now coming off the bench and some larger contributions on offense from Mathias Lessort, Isaia Cordinier, and Guerschon Yabusele, France brings a refined game plan with more emphasis on the defensive end into this matchup that will challenge Germany as long as their role players play the part. Don’t forget France is still the home team which will bring an advantage into the game with the crowd behind them (French fans came out in full force for the Canada game; the atmosphere was reminiscent of a soccer stadium). Perhaps France gains a little extra favor from the officiating being the host team (I know Canada bettors felt this way last game). All of that being said, this is the game that will decide whether or not France has a chance to win the Silver or Gold Medal. This one is for all the marbles and we’re going to stick with the team we bet on from the start. Count on France to avenge their loss and advance to the Gold Medal game for a clash against Team USA.
The pick: France Moneyline
SERBIA VS. UNITED STATES – 12:00PM
Serbia takes on the US in the Semifinals after overcoming a 24 point deficit to defeat Australia in overtime in the Quarterfinal round. This will be a rematch as these teams played once already in pool play with the US winning 110-84 back on July 28th. The spread for this matchup is currently sitting at 16.5 with the US being the favorite. Given that the US has won each Olympic game so far by 17 or more points and beat Serbia previously by 26, taking the US to cover the spread will be a popular bet to make in this game and it can be easy to embrace that logic. Personally I see more value in betting props more so than counting on what the outcome and final score will be. Serbia has shown a more competitive edge since their last game against the US and Team USA has yet to really face any adversity or a real challenge in this tournament and we’ve seen the pitfalls of that (I am looking at you Team Canada). Keep in mind what defeating Team USA basketball in the Olympics means for any competing nation. It’s a chance for immortality; it’s arguably a greater achievement than winning the gold itself (see Team Argentina 2004). There’s plenty of motivation on the Serbian side to give it their all and see if they can manage to win. That being said, look for Nikola Jokic to continue his strong play. He saw an uptick in minutes once elimination games started (39min last game including overtime) and has managed to score 20+ points in 3 out of 4 olympic games so far. He is the anchor for team Serbia and they will depend on him to be victorious. Look for Jokic to score 20 or more again in this matchup.
The pick: Nikola Jokic 20+ Points
MORE PROP BETS TO CONSIDER:
Nikola Jokic 10+ Rebounds
Nikola Jokic 8+ Assists
Bogdan Bogdanovic 15+ Points
Bogdan Bogdanovic 2+ Made 3’s
Devin Booker 10+ Points
Devin Booker 2+ Made 3’s
Lebron James 6+ Assists
Anthony Edwards 10+ Points
LONG SHOT BET – (Had to build this on Bet365 to get the France spread market)
4 LEG PARLAY +10367 Odds
Chris Sale 8+ Strikeouts (Takes place today 8/7)
Francisco Lindor 2+ Hits (Takes place today 8/7)
Team France -2.5 Alternate Spread (Takes place tomorrow 8/8)
Devin Booker 4+ Made 3’s (Takes place tomorrow 8/8)
A $5 wager would win $518.35