DIAMONDBACKS @ ROYALS – 5:10pm
This is the final game of the only series these teams have against each other this season. The Diamondbacks rallied yesterday defeating the Royals 6-2 after losing the first game 10-4. Even though they lost yesterday the Royals have been batting extremely well with 22 hits so far through the 2 games played. The Diamondbacks have Ryne Nelson starting today who has been solid lately allowing only 6 runs through his last 4 starts but with limited experience pitching against this Royals team and with how well they’re hitting I am expecting him to struggle today. In only 1 previous appearance against the Royals (take this with a grain of salt it was a long time ago and he has improved since then) Nelson gave up 11 hits in a home matchup on April 25th 2023. Among the current starting rotation for the Diamondbacks, Nelson has arguably been the most vulnerable to give up Doubles, Triples, and Homeruns. He’s 3rd on the team with most homers allowed this season and 1st in doubles and triples. Among all pitchers in baseball he ranks 8th this season with 26 doubles allowed. In addition to this the Diamondbacks relief pitching has been miserable ranking 22nd currently in ERA this season which only helps the Royals batters.
There’s a number of good bets you can make on Royals batting props assuming Nelson and the Dbacks bullpen struggle today but the one I like the most is for Bobby Witt Jr. to get a double. He’s had 4 hits so far in this series with a double in each game. He has 13 hits through the 5 games they’ve played since the all-star break. He’s one of the hottest players in baseball right now and I don’t see him slowing down today.
The Pick: Bobby Witt Jr. to hit a double
OLYMPIC BASKETBALL – July 27th – August 10th
With the 2024 Summer Olympics kicking off this weekend in Paris there’s going to be a wide range of sports with betting markets that we don’t see normally but thankfully we will be treated with some high level international basketball and there’s definitely an opportunity to profit off of it. Rather than offering a pick on a specific game I wanted to cover a futures betting strategy that I think is going to be the best play to make on the tournament. This strategy is centered around the French National team making a deep run in the tournament and being one of the top two teams overall.
The French national men’s basketball team features 5 active NBA players including the two best defenders in the world (going off NBA Defensive Player of the Year voting) in Rudy Gobert and Victor Wembanyama. At the moment the top 2 picks in the most recent NBA draft Zaccharie Risacher and Alex Sarr are not included in the 12 man roster but the rosters are not finalized yet and still subject to change. Even without them their roster features Billal Coulibaly, Nicolas Batum, and Evan Fournier which is enough for a 5 man NBA starting lineup to be very competitive in this Olympic tournament. In addition to the roster makeup this team has continuity and familiarity with international basketball rules/style which we’ve seen the value of so far in exhibition matchups (see Team USA’s close wins over Germany and South Sudan). All of this combined with the fact that they get home court advantage throughout the games gives France the best chance they’ve ever had to bring home a Silver or Gold in basketball.
In the Olympics for basketball, there’s 12 teams competing overall split into 3 separate groups that will all play each other once to start. Teams that win get 2 points, teams that lose get 1 point, and zero points are awarded if a team forfeits. At the end of the group play the top 2 teams in each group advance to the quarter finals along with the 2 best 3rd place teams in each group (so 8 teams advance). The quarter final matchups are then determined by a random draw. The top 2 teams overall will get separated on opposite sides of the bracket so the only time they can ever play each other is in the championship round. This is an important detail and is currently impacting betting markets.
Among most books the odds for what team will win the gold medal in basketball all have the same rank with USA having the best odds for gold followed by Canada and then France. If you can find a market for which basketball team will win Silver, France is commonly featured as the favorite. Fan Duel has an outright market for this. Draft Kings offers a market for “team to reach the final” with France being the most favored team after the USA (even though Canada is largely more favored to win Gold). What this means is that the expectation from oddsmakers is that France and the USA will be the top two performing teams through the group play stage and will be placed on opposite ends of the bracket when the quarterfinals start. As long as this is the case the only time these two teams can ever play is in the Gold Medal round. With France being favored to win silver/make it to the championship game, the expectation from the book is that Canada will get matched up against the USA in the quarterfinals or the semifinals and only 1 will advance to the Gold Medal Round to face France. As long as this holds up there’s a betting strategy we can utilize to beat the book here based on how these markets are priced. What I would recommend is a combination of bets on France to win Silver and France to win Gold. Put 75% of the money you intend to bet on France to win Silver and 25% on them to win Gold. As long as France makes the gold medal game you will stand to profit. If you took $20 and followed this strategy it should look something like this:
France to win Silver Medal (Currently +260 on FanDuel)
$15 wager to win $39
France to win Gold Medal (Currently +1500 on FanDuel)
$5 wager to win $75
The Pick: Bet France to win the Silver AND Gold Medal in Basketball.