NEW YORK LIBERTY @ MINNESOTA LYNX – 5:00 PM
The Liberty travel to Minnesota to take on the Lynx in game 3 of the WNBA Finals tonight. With the series tied at 1-1, this is a pivotal game that may ultimately decide the outcome of this five game series. After their epic collapse that lead to a loss in game 1, the Liberty fired back in game 2 and won in convincing fashion with a final score of 80-66. The reality of the matchup is that the Liberty feature a much more talented lineup that has better size combined with elite scoring ability to challenge the Lynx and it’s no surprise that the Liberty have held double digit leads at times through both finals games played so far. With the spread set at 3.5 points favoring the Liberty, you can definitely expect the Lynx to keep the game competitive as they are sure to get a boost from playing at home. Will that boost be enough to put them over the top to win game 3 and take a lead in this series? It’s doubtful. AI is suggesting a near 57% likelihood that the Liberty win the game and a 47.5% chance they win by a margin of 1-10 points. FanDuel has the Liberty 1-10 win margin priced at +160 odds which equates to about 38% implied probability so there is much better value to work with betting on the win margin as opposed to taking the Liberty on the moneyline. Either one is a good bet to make but the win margin bet is a higher value play.
The Pick: New York Liberty 1-10 Win Margin (FanDuel)
LOS ANGELES DODGERS @ NEW YORK METS – 5:05 PM
The Dodgers travel to New York to take on the Mets tonight for game 3 of the NLCS. With the series tied at 1-1 the Mets are in excellent position to utilize their home field advantage to gain more ground in this series. Luckily for them they already faced the best pitcher the Dodgers have available in game 1 when Jack Flaherty started, and today they’ll get to face arguably the worst pitcher in the Dodgers starting rotation in Walker Buehler. Buehler has struggled mightily this season, posting a 5.38 ERA and showing consistent issues when facing the Mets’ lineup, with an above 5.00 career ERA against them. Meanwhile, Luis Severino has been more reliable, and the Mets hold the upper hand at home with the successful track record that Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor carry when hitting against Buehler. With Citi Field’s cooler, windy conditions potentially limiting the Dodgers’ power game, the Mets have a legitimate edge, making them an attractive pick to win this game. AI is suggesting a 54% chance that the Mets win while FanDuel has the Mets priced at -104 on the moneyline which equates to just under 51% implied probability. Count on the Mets to get the job done today to take a lead in the NLCS.
The Pick: New York Mets Moneyline
OTHER BETS TO CONSIDER:
Courtney Williams 15+ Points
Napheesa Collier 20+ Points
Jonquel Jones 8+ Rebounds
Breanna Stewart 20+ Points
Pete Alonso OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI’s (Draft Kings)
Francisco Lindor OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI’s (Draft Kings)
Florida International Panthers -5.5 Alternate Spread (Draft Kings)
Sam Houston Bearkats Moneyline
FAVORITE PARLAYS:
2 Legs +203 Odds
- Florida International Panthers -5.5 Alternate Spread (Draft Kings)
- Sam Houston Bearkats Moneyline
2 Legs +410 Odds
- New York Liberty 1-10 Win Margin (FanDuel)
- New York Mets Moneyline
3 Legs +633 Odds
- Sam Houston Bearkats Moneyline
- New York Mets Moneyline
- Courtney Williams 15+ Points
LONG SHOT PARLAY:
3 Legs +2201 Odds (I made this on Draft Kings)
- Florida International Panthers -13.5 Alternate Spread
- Napheesa Collier 21+ Points
- Pete Alonso to hit a Home Run
A $5 bet wins $115.06