PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES @ MILWAUKEE BREWERS – 4:40PM
The Phillies take on the Brewers today in the final game these two teams will play against each other in the regular season. The Phillies just defeated the Brewers 5-1 yesterday, extending their dominance in the season series to 4-1 through five games. Phillies’ starting pitcher Aaron Nola has a stellar track record against Milwaukee, boasting a career 7-2 record with a 2.76 ERA in 13 starts. Nola has consistently controlled the Brewers’ lineup, and with Philadelphia’s offensive firepower led by Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and Trea Turner, the Phillies have both the pitching and hitting edge. AI suggests that the Phillies have a 55% chance to win this matchup while the book has them priced at -102 which equates to 50.5% implied probability so there is value to capitalize on by backing the Phillies.
The Pick: Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline
NEW YORK YANKEES @ SEATTLE MARINERS – 6:40PM
The Yankees take on the Mariners again tonight in Seattle after a dominating 11-2 victory last night. They’ve now won three of the five games played between the two teams this season. Aaron Judge and Juan Soto will be players to consider taking some batting prop bets on as Mariners starter Bryce Miller has struggled heavily against New York, most notably in their May 22 meeting where he allowed 3 home runs (2 for Soto and 1 for Judge) and 5 earned runs. In the two games he has played against the Yankees in his career Bryce Miller has a 10.97 ERA. Given Miller’s history against this powerful Yankees lineup, and with New York’s offense firing on all cylinders, the odds are in favor of another Yankees win. AI believes the Yankees are 57.5% likely to win the game while the line is at -120 currently on FanDuel which equates to an implied probability of 54.5%. It’s not as much value as the Phillies moneyline pick but there’s still enough here to justify betting on the Yankees to win.
The Pick: New York Yankees Moneyline
OTHER BETS TO CONSIDER:
Spencer Schwellenbach OVER 5.5 Strikeouts
Matt Olson 1+ RBI’s
San Francisco Giants vs. Baltimore Orioles OVER 8 Total Runs
Framber Valdez 5+ Strikeouts
Jose Altuve 1+ Hits
Kyle Tucker 1+ Hits
Dylan Cease OVER 5.5 Strikeouts
Bryce Harper 1+ RBI’s
Aaron Judge Hits+Runs+RBI’s OVER 1.5 (This is on Draft Kings)
Juan Soto Hits+Runs+RBI’s OVER 1.5 (This is on Draft Kings)
LONG SHOT PARLAY:
3 Legs +2928 Odds
- Matt Olson to Hit a Home Run
- Spencer Schwellenbach 7+ Strikeouts
- Juan Soto to Hit a Home Run
A $5 wager would win 146.44